![]() ![]() The single-race Derby exotics can pay boxcars. Still, a diligent pedigree analysis can prove a useful tool in enhancing one's already-positive opinion of a Derby contender, or in poking a hole in a potential underlay. In many ways, it is a crap shoot to deduce which lightly raced 3-year-old will handle the demanding Derby distance, especially factoring in a 20-horse scrum and a paddock circus that could unnerve even the most professional Thoroughbred. So it is with handicapping and analyzing pedigrees. ![]() Breeders with Derby dreams mate stamina influences and pray the resulting foal will stay. "Breed the best to the best and HOPE for the best" is the industry's oft-repeated mantra. Nothing about their pedigrees screamed "Derby winner," but they were simply the best horses.īig Brown (by Boundary), Smarty Jones (by Elusive Quality out of a Smile mare) and Funny Cide (by Distorted Humor) immediately come to mind as recent Derby winners that had serious stamina issues to address on paper.īreeding racehorses is one-part science, one-part art, and most-parts luck. Similarly, American Pharoah's dam was an unplaced half-sister to two graded stakes-winning sprinters by the speedy influence Yankee Gentleman. While they, like the vast majority of Thoroughbreds, had at least one stamina influence buried deep in their bloodlines that pedigree fans could reference, the fact remains that California Chrome's sire never won a race longer than 5-1/2 furlongs and was 0 for 9 in route races. The last two Kentucky Derby winners, California Chrome and American Pharoah, were super-logical betting favorites strictly off the cold dope. While pedigree is an important piece of the Derby puzzle, it probably shouldn't come at the expense of the more reliable and basic handicapping tenets of speed, pace, and class. Handicappers obsess over that question, sometimes to their detriment, every first Saturday in May. You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser ![]()
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